Overshoot self-correction to collapse in the S&P 500 Mar-Aug 07

What's it look like to you?

 

The price swings in the S&P 500 over the last 4 months seem to display the natural complex system self-controls of the financial system 'fishtailing' to the point of failure.   I've been talking about seeing that in the decision making about future energy sources as well.    I think this type of systemic failure is generally the consequence of pushing self-correction mechanisms beyond their response limits.   Trying to respond to each other too little and too late amplifies and leads to all failing at once.    I don't know how to measure that directly, but observe the same system physics operating as in many other dynamic disordering cascades like the onset of turbulence in flows, and draw the conclusion from that.   

 

[in case you notice, I label the downward overshoots as occurring at the top of the cycle, as they should be, because the overshoots are in the rates of change] 

Link to latest quote: http://channels.netscape.com/pf/chart_quote.jsp?TickerSymbols=%24INX&time=6&ctype=hloc

 

In response you want to think of it as stabilizing the pumps that are going out of control.   You want to relieve the pressures by turning off the pumps, and really hope someone takes a whole systems point of view toward seeing what's next.

smaller image - http://www.synapse9.com/issues/S&PmovementsAug07-Sm.jpg

larger image - http://www.synapse9.com/issues/S&PmovementsAug07-L.jpg




Phil Henshaw                       ¸¸¸¸.·´ ¯ `·.¸¸¸¸
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave
NY NY 10040                      
tel: 212-795-4844                
e-mail: id@synapse9.com         
explorations: www.synapse9.com   

whether successfully averted for the moment or not, ...

Hi folks,

 

...this week's global run on credit seems like a casebook example of how a natural system failure to provide growing physical returns on investment would effect financial commitments for endlessly growing financial returns.      The naturally conflict.

 

One thing we can do is watch it closely, so others may learn from our experience.   Because systemic collapse is a big physical process in a big physical system, displaying all-together new kinds of rapidly spreading behaviors, watch for that.   If you see that sort of thing perhaps you'll 'believe your eyes and ears' and not feel the observations were 'planted' in your imagination somehow.   Remember what things seemed to mean before and after and make note of it.

 

---

I've been using the mismatch between our unlimited economic expectations and their certain disappointment as a way to learn about natural systems and how they fool us for about 30 years.   It's remains a rich and engaging subject.   In June I sent out my first 'system collision warning' ever, initially in a post to the AIA environment forum.    I said I thought the surprise discovery by the ethanol investors in May, that ethanol couldn't have the land they wanted because milk producers raised the price, signaled the tip of the growth system's physical collision with the earth we've all been waiting for, 'the big crunch'.    The same kind of 'fishtailing' in the steering mechanisms of the world economic system I observed then in the energy markets also seems clear in the rapid, large scale, and indecisive maneuvering this week by financial institutions.

 

Just because growth expectations are fulfilled, even for hundreds of years, doesn't mean it's not certain that natural systems will fail them, and so our financial design that requires growth for it's own stability is a mistake.   If this week's threatened global financial collapse is just a warning, well, then do take it as a warning.

 

 

Phil Henshaw                       ¸¸¸¸.·´ ¯ `·.¸¸¸¸
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave
NY NY 10040                      
tel: 212-795-4844                
e-mail: id@synapse9.com         
explorations: www.synapse9.com